What IPS's Report Shows About Government's Intent

I'm sorry but I need to invite you to read this piece of crap from (no surprise, yet again) ChannelNewsAsia.

SINGAPORE: Another study has been released in support of Singapore's need to attract new migrants to slow down the impact of an ageing and dwindling population.

Read the rest of the crap by clicking on the link


Singaporeans are busy people and no one really likes to read these 'dry' stuffs right? But do take note, this report from IPS will form the framework of the White Paper discussion. You can guess how it will be. Some chap will present this report, the rest of the guys will make some smart comments, in the end, "Ok let's do this," and Singapore's future is set. It's basically a master plan for you to look into Singapore's future. Like a crystal ball. You will be interested in it, won't you?

I know you didn't read that link I provided. Let me do a summary for you then. The institute set out 3 scenarios for Singapore population in the next 20 years.

There are only 3 variables to take note. 

1) The number of foreigners Singapore wants to take in 
2) Our birth rates 
3) Working adult : Elderly ratio

What the government wants to achieve is the highest possible ratio of working adult to elderly. The more working adults supporting the ailing elderly is a good idea isn't it? As an illustration, it is easier for 5 siblings to support both parents than 1 child supporting both parents. Common sense. Everyone will agree on this, no dispute with that.

The problem with this idea is that, what happens when these 5 siblings became elderly themselves? That is why the government continues to perplex me by not realising the fallacy of this strategy. What is going to happen to these current batch of Singaporeans and the legion of New Citizens when it is their turn to become elderly if we seemingly can't cope with the current numbers of elderly? This is common sense too but why isn't anyone seeing it?

Singaporeans are still apathetic. "The government will solve this," or "Singapore has problems but we just have to face it," or "What to do, we have to live with it," are some of the responses I've received recently from the men and women on the streets. Ok, we'll leave everything to the government, let's see what they are up to with this report from IPS.

Ok back to the 3 variables.

1) The number of foreigners Singapore wants to take in 
2) Our birth rates 
3) Working adult : Elderly ratio

If the government wants to maintain the working adult: elder ratio, then it's clear that there are only 2 other variables to play around with. The scary thing about the report is that they chose to assumed that our Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24. It is already 1.16 as we speak [link]. What do you reckon the figure will be in the next 20 years? I'll leave this chart to assist you to make your prediction.

If we could agree that our birthrate will continue to decline over the years or at least, we know we should do some adjustments to IPS's projection. Look what they came out with.

One, where the proportion of foreigners remains at 25 per cent (or one in four) of the total population.

Two, where this proportion drops to 20 per cent (or one in five).

And three, where the proportion is raised to 33 per cent (or one in three).

For all scenarios, it is assumed that Singapore will take in 30,000 new citizens or Permanent Residents every year, and the country's Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24

The report states that a higher non-resident population will mean a larger total population, from the current 5 million now to 6.8 million in 2030, if the proportion of foreigners in the population is raised to 33 per cent.

Now, which scenario would you think that the government will choose if our birth rates continues to drop? Definitely the scenario three, where the proportion of foreigners will be raised to 33 percent IF our birthrates remains at 1.24 until 2030. 

I'll like to remain you again that our birthrate was 1.16 last year. If our government is insistent on maintaining the working adults: elderly ratio and with a decline birthrate that doesn't look anywhere on the reversing trend, we could be looking at a proportion of 40% foreigners instead of 33% in future.

Another point to take that if government chose scenario three as the probable scenario, we are looking at a nice 6.8 million population in 2030. What happened to the original 6.5 million projection? No, we need another 300,000 people to prevent the economy from shrinking, slowing down blah blah blah. Expect these headlines next year.

Seriously, God bless Singapore.


  1. They talk as if the foreigners will not age.

    I have the same concern too. Thanks for writing.

  2. i could be missing something obvious, but how does additional working foreigners support our elderly? through taxes?

  3. Those idiots are rotting to the core.

  4. " i could be missing something obvious, but how does additional working foreigners support our elderly? through taxes? "

    Very good point!

    This is only a ploy to boost GDP - so they can add more to their M$ pay.

    Perhaps, more FTs to drop coins into the bowl of the growing number of beggars on the street?

  5. Good article! Just two further points:

    1. Sustainability. Is population growth an essential element to improving the quality of modern life? I shudder to think if all countries decide to pursue population growth at all costs.

    2. What really is the current optimal number of working adults to an elderly person? The past figure might be good for the past only, given the technological advances since then. Moreover the PAP government dishes out very little welfare assistance for the elderly - the latter group is basically paying for its own living through savings, family's assistance or literally working to death.

  6. " Moreover the PAP government dishes out very little welfare assistance for the elderly - the latter group is basically paying for its own living through savings, family's assistance or literally working to death. "

    How I wish the 60% would come to this realization. Or, perhaps, it is for us, the enlightened, to help them see the bare unadorned truth. Light the candle for them to see the darkness of this govt.

  7. ah khaw said that hdb flats has not shrunk in 15 years.

    he damn bullshit.

  8. It's really a nightmare for future generations! The regime is concerned abt GDP growth to boost up their reserves only at the expense of natives. Yes we all grow old. What happens to the new batch of new citizens? They also will grow old right? Do we need scenario three where there is a foreigner for every three citizens here? Soon the foreigners will inherit and take over everything in this country. We has e lost out birthright in own country. We are sold by this regime! Sad!
    I think they are desperate and bankrupt of ideas to sustain our economy. That us why they resort to this easy cheap option to boost the GDP of easy available foreigners! What is happening to our country?

  9. Why did the birthrate suddenly dip so sharply between 2003 and 2004? Does it reflect a dip in confidence with the change of governance from GCT to LHL? And since when exactly has PAP start shipping in any foreign Tom Dick and Harry onto our shores? I only noticed the sharp increase in the foreign population from the year 2008 onwards, but it could well be that the pro-foreigner policies were already in place from 2004 onwards.

    It doesn't take a PhD to realise that the more foreigners you import, the sharper the drop in our birthrates due to overcrowding, stress and competition. They dun seem to get it, or they are just high up there and too detached to understand the ground sentiments.

  10. The government does not consider all viable options before they start mass-importing foreigners. PAP claims that we have labour shortage, and that will drive up wages and hence inflation. But labour shortage can also be addressed in many other ways: 1. promoting internal population growth (i.e. more family-friendly policies to encourage people to have more children) 2. increasing productivity so that the higher wages are justified. Increased productivity can be achieved by improving eduction and investing more in RnD, encouraging innovation etc. 3. It's also debatable whether an economy always necessarily has to grow. It must keep up with inflation, but does it really have to surpass it? Singapore cannot expand; its land mass is limited.

    The same goes with reversing the trend of an ageing population, we should always try to boost our own population first, no matter how difficult the task is. The truth is, immigrants are not loyal to their new country. Once the golden years are over, they return home and leave the original population to clear the rubble.

  11. Foreigners already accounts more than 30% now. I don't consider PR as locals. I don't like the way they group PR and locals together. It's technically correct but the PR group is too large. So when PR number is large, % foreigner will look better.

  12. We do know for a fact the majority of the new immigrants are PRC & Indians but on the other hand we hardly hear of new Malay immigrants, right? If the official reasons are to be believed, then can the authorities explain why is this so?

    Maybe the real truth is that only the birthrate of the Chinese citizens are dropping when compared to the other races. And hence to make for the shortage, mass numbers of them are needed ? And the official reasons given are just a smokescreen ?

    Incidentally this may explain why the monetary incentives for new child births are never intended to be that attractive to begin with lest they attract the wrong undesired kind in procreation ?

    Is it not funny that our Govt never talked about advising young couples to follow the Malay example of productive procreation, which could have easily rendered the need for new immigrants not redundant ?

  13. http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/latestdata.html

    In 2011,
    Total population: 5,183,700
    Singapore citizens: 3,257,200

    That means foreigners account for 37.1% now. Based on year 2011 citizen population growth at 0.9%, in 2030,

    Total population: 6,800,000
    Citizens: 3,861,000
    Foreigners: 2,939,000

    Which means 43.2%!

    But wait, the citizen population increase is due to the 20,000 - 30,000 new citizens intake per year. Local born citizens does not increase due to low birth rate. So if based on true blue singaporeans, we are for sure, a minority in our own country.

    5.18mil already feel the squeeze. 6.8mil, I can't imagine.